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marcus42
One thing I have noticed recently is a lot of athletes (especially rookies in the '07 football class) have had a ton, and that is no understatement, a ton of autographs for the products released in the various products this year.

Starting with a vast majority of products having rookie auto's in the base set, quite a few parallels, and then the insert sets that have autographs are the card companies beginning to overproduce a players signature and start detracting from his value?

There is a new product coming out soon, Topps Performance, that guarantees a Adrian Peterson auto in each 16 box case. Great concept, but at what price are they going to pay for having so many Peterson auto's on the market? I would love to have a Peterson auto for my collection, but not if everyone and his brother has one too. It would be great if we could all get the players we want, but then there would be no rarity or special uniqueness in our cards.

Sure we have 1/1's and very low numbered parallels, but they are in every single product!!! I love the variety and how the card companies have been innovative, but they are going into a gray area I'm not really liking.

Not too sure on the baseball, or basketball side of this, but I would like to get everyones thoughts on this. Especially with exclusive deals playing a big part in the baseball and basketball genre.

Also, I think Bigalexx brought up this issue earlier, and it has resonated with me lately. He brought up a great point, and I'd love to hear opinions on this.

thanks!
ffman
QUOTE(marcus42 @ Jan 15 2008, 07:54 PM)
One thing I have noticed recently is a lot of athletes (especially rookies in the '07 football class) have had a ton, and that is no understatement, a ton of autographs for the products released in the various products this year.

Starting with a vast majority of products having rookie auto's in the base set, quite a few parallels, and then the insert sets that have autographs are the card companies beginning to overproduce a players signature and start detracting from his value?

There is a new product coming out soon, Topps Performance, that guarantees a Adrian Peterson auto in each 16 box case. Great concept, but at what price are they going to pay for having so many Peterson auto's on the market? I would love to have a Peterson auto for my collection, but not if everyone and his brother has one too. It would be great if we could all get the players we want, but then there would be no rarity or special uniqueness in our cards.

Sure we have 1/1's and very low numbered parallels, but they are in every single product!!! I love the variety and how the card companies have been innovative, but they are going into a gray area I'm not really liking.

Not too sure on the baseball, or basketball side of this, but I would like to get everyones thoughts on this. Especially with exclusive deals playing a big part in the baseball and basketball genre.

Also, I think Bigalexx brought up this issue earlier, and it has resonated with me lately. He brought up a great point, and I'd love to hear opinions on this.

thanks!
*



I don't think the rookie overproduction is as bad in baseball as it is in football. In my opinion, 'rookies' are harder to collect in baseball thanks to the weird 'rookie card logo'.

However, baseball has a major problem with the overproduction of 1/1s and parallels in general (Topps Moments and Milestones, for example).
bigalexx
Ya. This was exactly what I was thinking when I posted the topic back in September. It really is a gray area, because at the rate the card companys are going, Supply will soon exceed demand and that could really kill the hobby in the end.
Kmart6nets
As long as there is money to be had, there will be overproduction of what collectors want. Want more Lettermans? Two per box! Want more autos? One per pack!

Not to say I blame the companies one second, but it really is about the money, and it certainly makes them the $$$
19th Century Indiana Jones
I think this is where vintage shows its strength. Mint specimens are not very common and when one does pop up, it attracts the collector-type, not the investor/prospector-type. Therefore, the mood is "must have" and not "what will it be worth later"?
marcus42
QUOTE(19th Century Indiana Jones @ Jan 15 2008, 09:06 PM)
I think this is where vintage shows its strength. Mint specimens are not very common and when one does pop up, it attracts the collector-type, not the investor/prospector-type. Therefore, the mood is "must have" and not "what will it be worth later"?
*



Very interesting, but what about the team/player collector? especially the collector that collects from the most recent of products. I mainly focus on Former Ohio State players, and current Cleveland Browns. When I see so much of these players I start to lose motivation in acquiring their items.

Good point about vintage though.
19th Century Indiana Jones
QUOTE(marcus42 @ Jan 15 2008, 09:10 PM)
Very interesting, but what about the team/player collector? especially the collector that collects from the most recent of products. I mainly focus on Former Ohio State players, and current Cleveland Browns. When I see so much of these players I start to lose motivation in acquiring their items.

Good point about vintage though.
*


As a beginner player collector, I don't mind the lower prices or a slight rise in overproduction. What concerns me is the TYPES of cards put out there. I mean, sure there are limited /10, /5, and /1 "sticker" autographed cards, but just how many autographed stickers are there out there? There could be TENS OF THOUSANDS of them waiting years to be stuck on a card. At least the on-card autographs had to be signed shortly after they were produced. And don't get me started on the manufactured non-used patches.....
justineustis
I think another question would be, When supply exceeds demand where does the hobby go from there? Before the late 90's the hobby was all about collecting your favorite player, inserts and rc's. The hobby evolved to gu and autos. Now football has event used face masks, helmets ect....What will the hobby evolve to after the market is flooded with product.
justineustis
One more thought. I'm waiting to see some game use dirt, turf, or grass in a product.
ffman
QUOTE(justineustis @ Jan 15 2008, 08:38 PM)
One more thought. I'm waiting to see some game use dirt, turf, or grass in a product.
*



I don't think I am. It's hard to link dirt, turf, grass, a baseball base, etc to a certain player. Granted, I have a couple of these kind of cards in my personal collection, but it's still tough to make a connection with the player. After all, such materials are used by everyone during the course of the game, not one player.
jam92102
Agree with all of your comments guys. Very good points. With a guaranteed adrian peterson autograph I would say that's definitley not going to book like other peterson high ends. It's great for the AP collector but for someone who doesn't collect him like me all it hurts is a lower trade/sell value. I know if I pull an AP auto right now I can at least trade usually for a pretty decent card. Guaranting autos of a particular player I think is a very bad idea.
Hallsgator
That's why I love baseball. Most guys only have 2 or 3 autos in their first year because of Chrome and Sterling.
marcus42
QUOTE(19th Century Indiana Jones @ Jan 15 2008, 09:35 PM)
As a beginner player collector, I don't mind the lower prices or a slight rise in overproduction. What concerns me is the TYPES of cards put out there. I mean, sure there are limited /10, /5, and /1 "sticker" autographed cards, but just how many autographed stickers are there out there? There could be TENS OF THOUSANDS of them waiting years to be stuck on a card. At least the on-card autographs had to be signed shortly after they were produced. And don't get me started on the manufactured non-used patches.....
*



also, very true. I think that helps the long term value of the cards that are signed on card. That's why I feel SPA, Exquisite, and various releases like that will be valued higher. Sticker auto's may help the fewer amount of redemptions, but also the increase of the players autograph.

Very interesting point about baseball products, I think that really helps, but what about veteran auto's? how are they released, what about availability of them?
Are there too many letterman auto's in baseball products too, similar to SP rookie threads in football?
nick539
QUOTE(ffman @ Jan 15 2008, 08:59 PM)
I don't think the rookie overproduction is as bad in baseball as it is in football.  In my opinion, 'rookies' are harder to collect in baseball thanks to the weird 'rookie card logo'. 

However, baseball has a major problem with the overproduction of 1/1s and parallels in general (Topps Moments and Milestones, for example).
*


more is better because its easier to get good pulls
Luke2411
I think that if companies went back to the way cards were produced in the 80s and 90s, with some changes, things would get better.

We know the problem in the 80s and 90s was the mass overproduction of the base cards, rookie cards, etc. They completely watered down the market and it almost destroyed the card collecting world. Prices were driven down tremendously and now none of those cards are worth much of anything.

But, remember when it was nie impossible to pull a Donruss Elite insert? Or how about those Heroes autographs in early 90s Upper Deck boxes?

People want an autograph in every pack because they want return on their money. They justly feel that paying $100 for a box of cards should be worth something. But, I wonder what would happen if the card companies went back to making the game-used and autos super rare, releasing some nice inserts with nice photography and design, making only a couple of products a year, and limiting the production of them.

I would think, and this is just speculation, that it would drive up the prices of game-used and auto cards. The autographs of your favorite rookies would actually be valuable again. It would also drive up the value of base sets and regular insert cards. And, it would drive down the prices of boxes, packs, etc.

This would be great for the collector. People would be getting more value per pack for their money, but still have the chase for the high end inserts, game-used and autos.

You know what the problem in all this would be? The card companies would lose money. By shrinking the difference between what you and I pay per box or pack and the average value of what will be obtained on the secondary market from what is in those boxes or packs, would decrease the card company profit margin, and that's what it's all about.

It always goes back to whether or not the company could make more money selling their cards individually on the secondary market than actually selling them through packs and boxes. Right now because of all the products they make, the junk autos and game-used, etc. and how the overproduction has driven down secondary market prices, it's much more profitable for them to keep selling their boxes to us. We buy them hoping for the big pay day, but generally get hosed. So, we bear the cost because of our weakness to gambling and they reap the profits.
marcus42
QUOTE(nick539 @ Jan 15 2008, 11:16 PM)
more is better because its easier to get good pulls
*



True thought in theory, but is it worth detracting from the value of the cards? Also, it ups the pack price, which a lot aren't too happy about lately.
dodgerblue38501
I've noticed this problem in football the last couple of years. The '06 Rookie class signed more than any in history. Also many new products have emerged and old products have been re-formatted (Ultra, SPx) to push more AUTOS & GU. We are currently in the midst of the lettermen fad. In a couple years when autographed manufactured letters, bat barrels, football pieces, etc. are played out the card companies will have to come up with something else innovative to hold collectors interest and get their money. I remember last year everyone was hoping to pull a Reggie Bush AUTO. Then it seemed that most everyone did. He signed thousands of autographs for all the major card companies. Sage even used the '06 rookies as a basis for a new product, Sage Decadence, this year to push more AUTOS, 1/1 Printing Plates, etc. It just seems as if we are treading on dangerous ground here. Nothing is rare anymore. 1/1s were the rarest of the rare a few years back. Now there are 4 or 5 different colors of 1/1 printing plates of every card and various 1/1 parallels as well, not to mention autographed plates. I agree with an earlier post. If collectors show that they like what the card companies are doing, they will just do more of it until it loses its luster and then they move on to something else.
bigalexx
QUOTE(nick539 @ Jan 15 2008, 08:16 PM)
more is better because its easier to get good pulls
*


Ya but when theres so many what normally is a great pull would rarely get your money back for the pack of cards.
19th Century Indiana Jones
QUOTE(dodgerblue38501 @ Jan 16 2008, 12:16 AM)
I've noticed this problem in football the last couple of years. The '06 Rookie class signed more than any in history. Also many new products have emerged and old products have been re-formatted (Ultra, SPx) to push more AUTOS & GU.
*


That's why I am specifically targeting on-card autographs because they are becoming somewhat scarcer than sticker autos. Besides Topps Rookie Premier, what brand/subset doesn't use auto stickers?

These companies are becoming too greedy. I'm just wondering what would happen if everyone stopped buying all at once for an entire year.....
dodgerblue38501
QUOTE(19th Century Indiana Jones @ Jan 16 2008, 07:04 AM)
That's why I am specifically targeting on-card autographs because they are becoming somewhat scarcer than sticker autos. Besides Topps Rookie Premier, what brand/subset doesn't use auto stickers?

These companies are becoming too greedy. I'm just wondering what would happen if everyone stopped buying all at once for an entire year.....

*



I also value on-card AUTOS above sticker AUTOS. I think one of the things that first pulled collectors into the AUTO chase when they became inserted in packs, was the fact that the player acyually had taken to time to sign the card, hold the card, look at the card. It gave collectors a somewhat personal connection to that athlete. I love the Greats of the Game AUTOS from 1999-2002 and Upper Deck Legends up until they started using stickers in 2001 or 2002. Press Pass only does on-card AUTOS. They have had some nice AUTOS in their Legends series the last couple of years. I just can't believe the audacity of the card companies putting sticker AUTOS in such high end products as National Treasures, Paradigm, and most recently the 2007 Exquisite Rookies Baseball. Unfortunately most collectors don't seem to mind as they keep buying the products. Hence the card companies will continue to produce them.
19th Century Indiana Jones
QUOTE(dodgerblue38501 @ Jan 16 2008, 11:21 AM)
I just can't believe the audacity of the card companies putting sticker AUTOS in such high end products as National Treasures, Paradigm, and most recently the 2007 Exquisite Rookies Baseball. Unfortunately most collectors don't seem to mind as they keep buying the products. Hence the card companies will continue to produce them.
*


The sticker auto makes me feel like the card came off an assembly line.
ffman
QUOTE(Luke2411 @ Jan 15 2008, 11:00 PM)
I think that if companies went back to the way cards were produced in the 80s and 90s, with some changes, things would get better.

We know the problem in the 80s and 90s was the mass overproduction of the base cards, rookie cards, etc.  They completely watered down the market and it almost destroyed the card collecting world.  Prices were driven down tremendously and now none of those cards are worth much of anything.

But, remember when it was nie impossible to pull a Donruss Elite insert?  Or how about those Heroes autographs in early 90s Upper Deck boxes? 

People want an autograph in every pack because they want return on their money.  They justly feel that paying $100 for a box of cards should be worth something.  But, I wonder what would happen if the card companies went back to making the game-used and autos super rare, releasing some nice inserts with nice photography and design, making only a couple of products a year, and limiting the production of them. 

I would think, and this is just speculation, that it would drive up the prices of game-used and auto cards.  The autographs of your favorite rookies would actually be valuable again.  It would also drive up the value of base sets and regular insert cards.  And, it would drive down the prices of boxes, packs, etc.

This would be great for the collector.  People would be getting more value per pack for their money, but still have the chase for the high end inserts, game-used and autos. 

You know what the problem in all this would be?  The card companies would lose money.  By shrinking the difference between what you and I pay per box or pack and the average value of what will be obtained on the secondary market from what is in those boxes or packs, would decrease the card company profit margin, and that's what it's all about.

It always goes back to whether or not the company could make more money selling their cards individually on the secondary market than actually selling them through packs and boxes.  Right now because of all the products they make, the junk autos and game-used, etc. and how the overproduction has driven down secondary market prices, it's much more profitable for them to keep selling their boxes to us.  We buy them hoping for the big pay day, but generally get hosed.  So, we bear the cost because of our weakness to gambling and they reap the profits.
*



I kind of feel the same way. I don't know if I would like GU/AU to be 'super rare,' but I think the re-introduction of the insert chase would be a great help. Bring a little creative design back into the products for once.
marcus42
I do prefer the on card auto over the sticker auto, but I don't mind a sticker auto, if it makes it easier for the athlete to sign for the company. Though I feel the companies have abused the innovation of the sticker auto.
Kmart6nets
Oh they have used and ABUSED the sticker auto... That weird new football product that came out with all cut autos... I saw a youtube video where a STICKER "cut" auto was pulled. I'd be absolutely furious if I ever pulled something like that.
2000 rushing yards
I've noticed this in football way too much recently. Autos from 3 years ago are now dropping i think becuase of over production. There are also too many products out there that it's extremely hard and expensive to be a player/team collector (in any sport)

In 15 years, this is gonna be the late 80s/90s times 10 becuase of packs being some much more high-end now
19th Century Indiana Jones
Maybe they should cut the AU/GU RCs and let them only appear in base sets. With the addition of non-RC short-prints it might upgrade the sales of base - especially for those who are set builders.
dd316
As a player collector, I'm not overly concerned with overproduction. There will always be super-hard-to-get parallels/inserts, whether they're autos/gu/whatever that'll fuel the chase. Even now with all the 1/1's around, it's still not easy to track down most of them! Personally I don't mind a glut of product - it keeps the prices down.

I'll tell you what I've noticed though, I have a harder time tracking down newer Clark base and commons than autos and gu!
Kmart6nets
This is very true... Base is almost like a four letter word to a lot of collectors. They want nothing to do with it, so finding specific base cards can be near impossible. And eBay is out of the question unless you can find a solid lot of cards. 10 cents plus $2.99 shipping isn't really worth a base card if you ask me.
vicsten
I wonder if the card companies aren't shooting themselves in the foot long-term. Just as the 80's and 90's were overproduced, the companies deciding to flood the market with this stuff are setting the hobby up for trouble once again, I believe. Will they ever learn? Doesn't look like it. -Vickie
msuwendy
QUOTE(19th Century Indiana Jones @ Jan 17 2008, 12:26 AM)
The sticker auto makes me feel like the card came off an assembly line.
*



Ain't that the truth. Part of the thrill of pulling an auto used to be the fact that the athlete actually handled the card you're holding. Sticker autos have destroyed that.

Overproduction? Without a doubt.

Will it change? I don't think so. At the end of it all, it's a business. Card companies are in a pretty good position if you ask me. Even with the abundance of products they release, collectors still swallow it up.....there are enough fanatical collectors and box busters out there.

Eventually, card prices are going to keep dropping and dropping because of the amount of cards in the secondary market. This is the reason why I've personally given up getting worked up about how much my collection is worth. I just collect for the fun of it now and because I love the look of certain cards.
19th Century Indiana Jones
QUOTE(msuwendy @ Jan 17 2008, 02:56 AM)
Eventually, card prices are going to keep dropping and dropping because of the amount of cards in the secondary market. This is the reason why I've personally given up getting worked up about how much my collection is worth. I just collect for the fun of it now and because I love the look of certain cards.
*


Exactly! It makes it much more enjoyable. Whether it be base, insert, AU or GU, it has to look nice. Some of the high-end cards have atrocious designs. I think the companies are infected with "make the chase card look prettier and shinier than the rest" syndrome.
nick539
QUOTE(marcus42 @ Jan 16 2008, 12:03 AM)
True thought in theory, but is it worth detracting from the value of the cards? Also, it ups the pack price, which a lot aren't too happy about lately.
*


well i mean dont add any more GU or autos thats already being made but what i dont like is there a so many high end products now and i dont have a problem with that but the problem i have is that the card companies are turning low end and mid end products into high end products and there are less low end and mid end products which i dont like for example sweet spot they all used to come with 12 packs per box so at least you had a little bit of base to show with the GU/autos and now there all in 7 or less card tins so you dont get any base cards
marcus42
I think it's time I bump this topic....


Quite frustrating they up the autograph print run in Prestige (from 25 to 50 to 100 to 250 for draft pick rights autographs, and then a bunch more insert autographs.

Then in Donruss Elite, they are upping the autograph (Turn of the Century to 100, I believe) and RC's to 999. I love the Elite RC's to /599 and adding 400 more copies really detracts from the allure of the Elite...ugh sad.gif
bigalexx
Yea, Your now going to see an even greater difference between pretty much all football products compared to Contender, SPA, and Exquisite. There's always been a big price difference with those 3 compared to every other product, but the difference will probably only become greater. Good to know that I cant get a decent football product until the Playoffs start.
m135
Agree with the above. I'll probably be busting nothing but 07s until late this year/early next...

About the over production (especially referring to Performance).. the better the chance of pulling a Peterson auto, the more people will buy the boxes. The rarer they are, the less people will bust boxes to get them, but they would go up on the secondary market. The card companies see none of the cash from the secondary market. That's pretty much it. Money.

And the overproduction is worse in some products than others.. Topps Triple Threads being one of the worst.. first few levels, the only difference is the background color and the serial. Or Absolute 1/1s that look exactly like the /5 and others are bad too, only thing that separates them is the serial. 1/1s should be so remarkable that you don't even need to check the back for the serial, you should know by just looking at it.
marcus42
great points guys.

I agree with all said.

IF I decide to bust anything I would definitely stick with late 07 stuff until the nice 08 stuff comes out...I know the hobby is not all about how much value a box has, but when everyone and his brother is pulling a McFadden auto or Peterson auto, how is that exciting? I would much rather see fewer of them out there than everyone having them...how can we 'chase' them when they aren't that hard to chase?

I just want a product like this:
-On Card auto's
-RC's #'d to somewhere between 599 and 999 (possible true RC's auto's)
-one, just one insert auto set
-two insert THEMED sets
-TWO parallel sets (either a gold/silver /100 or /25, and a 1/1 set of course wink.gif).
-a memorabilia insert set also.
-and printing plates would not be inserted into packs


also, Prestige reprint patches are #'d to 100!! a patch card to 100, that is another sign sad.gif I remember when patches were still /25 a short couple years ago.
marcus42
I'm almost to the point where I will only collect stuff from pre 2007...

it's terrible...SAGE Squared is the poster child for overproduction!
ffman
QUOTE(marcus42 @ Aug 22 2008, 09:39 AM)
I'm almost to the point where I will only collect stuff from pre 2007...

it's terrible...SAGE Squared is the poster child for overproduction!
*



Sage High Series, Sage High Series, Sage Squared - is Sage Cubed next? laugh.gif

In baseball, we have Topps Opening Day, Topps Series 1, Topps Series 2, Topps Update. I think Opening Day should be whacked.

Upper Deck First Edition, Upper Deck Series 1, Upper Deck Series 2, Upper Deck First Edition Update. Both First Edition products should be whacked.
metsfan2427
if i rember
Brady Quinn had 1,500 cards in 07
Yamon Figurs had 680+ cards in 07
Brian Burres had maybe 30 in 07
shows you how over produced the rookies are in football
miles.ngo
QUOTE(marcus42 @ Jun 11 2008, 08:11 PM)
great points guys.

I agree with all said.

IF I decide to bust anything I would definitely stick with late 07 stuff until the nice 08 stuff comes out...I know the hobby is not all about how much value a box has, but when everyone and his brother is pulling a McFadden auto or Peterson auto, how is that exciting? I would much rather see fewer of them out there than everyone having them...how can we 'chase' them when they aren't that hard to chase?

I just want a product like this:
-On Card auto's
-RC's #'d to somewhere between 599 and 999 (possible true RC's auto's)
-one, just one insert auto set
-two insert THEMED sets
-TWO parallel sets (either a gold/silver /100 or /25, and a 1/1 set of course wink.gif).
-a memorabilia insert set also.
-and printing plates would not be inserted into packs
also, Prestige reprint patches are #'d to 100!! a patch card to 100, that is another sign sad.gif I remember when patches were still /25 a short couple years ago.
*



Sounds like SP Authentic Hockey, Marcus!
ffman
QUOTE(metsfan2427 @ Aug 22 2008, 11:46 AM)
if i rember
Brady Quinn had 1,500 cards in 07
Yamon Figurs had 680+ cards in 07
Brian Burres had maybe 30 in 07
shows you how over produced the rookies are in football
*



Parallels, parallels, and more parallels are why each player has so many cards!

Loodle37
I dont like the parallel sets at all
marcus42
QUOTE(Loodle37 @ Aug 22 2008, 03:31 PM)
I dont like the parallel sets at all
*



I love parallel sets, just not overkill that really gets to me!
chopinalex
i love parallel sets! fractors and fractors!

marcus42
I'm a broken record,

but so is one color jerseys...autographs out the well you know what...

Lockdown32
I think the idea of limiting g/u and autos would be a good idea. Just as long as it isn't impossible to pull one. There are a lot of collectors that don't buy boxes all that often. I think they need to come somewhere in the middle. Maybe less of the rookies that are going to be very limited in their time in the NFL and less of the NFL legends auto and g/u to bring up the rarity.
metsfan2427
QUOTE(chopinalex @ Aug 24 2008, 07:51 PM)
i love parallel sets! fractors and fractors!
*


i like refractors and that stuff but not to found of the 100's of 1 of 1's
marcus42
eBay Auction (Item number: 260296677654)

is there any reason the most sought after rookie this year should sell this low this soon after a release?

I understand the economy is affecting the hobby, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were the same way if the economy was booming...
chopinalex
they never seem to overproduce guys you want..so i dont have a problem with it..i just hate upper deck makes like base sets 1-100 and you get every player over and over..
marcus42
QUOTE(chopinalex @ Oct 13 2008, 06:21 PM)
they never seem to overproduce guys you want..so i dont have a problem with it..i just hate upper deck makes like base sets 1-100 and you get every player over and over..
*



I too hate that fact too...

it would be nice to have some variety with base sets...make the more desirable to build!
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