Figured I'd start this up as a place for us Cardinal fans to discuss the happenings of what should prove to be a very very active offseason for the birds. So far we have:


Kyle Lohse re-signed for 4 years, $41 million dollars (Full no-trade clause)

Lohse

Dave Duncan re-signed for 1 year

Duncan


So far, opinions seem to vary on the Lohse signing. Some will tell you there is no upside to a contract like that, and that he had his career year this past season. I say they were going to have to dish out that kind of dough for that type of pitcher anyway, might as well be Kyle. Other options for that rotation spot were most likely Derrick Lowe and Ryan Dempster, both of whom should receive more $ than Lohse got. Obviously re-signing Dave Duncan is a no-brainer. The LaRussa-Duncan tandem is now under contract for one more season. Will be interesting to see what direction ownership will go after the 09' season. Is Oquendo ready to be a big-time manager? Might help in securing some Latin players down the line. Just a premature thought. Obviously I am very pleased with the job LaRussa has done to this point and would like to see him manage a few more years if possible. And the final point I have is the National League MVP race. Looks like Pujols is the early media favorite. If anyone bothers to look at the stats it's as obvious as can be, but we all know the voters pay very little attention to stats other than HR's and RBI's. Would not shock me to see Howard win this award again. Discuss...

The outfield will be very interesting. Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker, Duncan, Mather, Stavinoa, Rasmus, Lopez. There's too many. My feeling is it will be Ankiel, Ludwick, and Rasmus (if healthy). However, they might decide he needs even more time in the bush since he got hurt this year.

I'm starting to feel that the outfield isn't as stacked as we think it is. I agree that they have a major log jam going on but I just don't see Mather and Stavinoa as everyday players. I do like what Mather brings to the table though and I really don't think it is fair to make an assesment on either with such little big league experience. But it will certainly be interesting to see how Mozeliak works this one out. Also will be interesting to see if Duncan can recover from the injury. I do agree that Ankiel, Ludwick, and Rasmus is probably where they are headed and probably the most productive combination. But we all know LaRussa would prefer to submit 162 different lineup cards. There should be plenty of playing time for all

Rumblings:

Jake Peavy is available FT. It is believed the Padres will move him sometime within the next two weeks as to maximize the return. It was noted that Peavy prefers the NL and STL is on his list of teams he would waive his no-trade clause for. Others include Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, and Los Angeles. It is believed the Padres are looking for a near-ready CF and 2 pitching prospects. Peavy is signed to a modest, relatively speaking, deal that would keep him under his new employer's control through 2013. There is a gigantic $22 million option for 2013 that will probably have to be guaranteed for Peavy to agree to the trade. But in 2013 I have a feeling that $22 million might not look so rediculous.

I am torn on this, but I do believe the Cardinals should make a solid offer at least. Everyone seems to like the idea that Peavy is signed to a modest contract for the next few years, but I argue that the $ you save is negated by the fact that you have to ship off 3-4 of your best prospects to get him. That being said, this is the price of doing business anymore in regards to superstar players.

So, my offer would be:

Colby Rasmus CF (5-tool, top 10 prospect, think Grady Sizemore)
Jess Todd SP (orginzational player of the year)
Chris Perez RP (hard throwing righty, did some closing for STL this year)

Fits all the requirements San Diego is looking for. Trevor Hoffman will be moving on within the next 2-3 years and Perez could be their future closer. Todd was nothing short of unhittable this year. He would dominate one level, get sent up to the next and then dominate there as well. Has the potential to be a #1. Nothing really needs to be said about Rasmus. Barring anymore injuries, he will play himself into a starting job at some point next season. I would for sure put this offer in to San Diego and half of me would hope they decline it Anybody else? I believe I am typing these things for my own fun, but I am having fun!

The other option I see for the Cardinals, and the most-likely situation, is that they go after a pitcher like John Garland and devote some big cash to a middle-infielder like Furcal or to the bullpen in Brian Fuentes or K-Rod (very unlikely). I think the biggest mistake the organization can make is to feel as though they are set on starting pitching for next year. They need to proceed as if Chris Carpenter doesn't exist. If he comes back and is healthy it's gravy.

Cards should go after Peavy. Rasmus is probably not coming to the bigs next year. but usually everytime the Cardinals give up on someone they become a bigger star. Just look at Dan Haren. Peavy would fit in nicely into the rotation. Cards should actually spend money on the right things this coming year. People were hyped up when they were thinking about signing Randy Johnson a few years ago. Peavy is amazing and he will actually be pitching for a team who can produce runs.

I just really don't see STL trading Rasmus. He is the poster boy for their new "develop from within" philosophy. Like I said, part of me does not want to see them trade him, but part of me believes it is the right move. Especially for a pitcher of Peavy's caliber. Four years of Peavy, Wainwright, and Lohse means a ton of wins. And if Carpenter could miraculously return to form, that is one heck of a rotation.

I cant see Mozeliak going after Peavy very hard. I think a viable closer is at the top of the list.

A couple thoughts for tonight: Just saw these on stltoday.com

Albert Pujols had more RBI's (116) than at-bats with runners in scoring position (114)

to put this stat in prospective you need this information:

Ryan Howard : at-bats w/ runners in scoring position (175) RBI's (146)

Manny Ramirez: at-bats w/ runners in scoring position (138) RBI's (121)

Alex Rodriguez: at-bats w/ runners in scoring position (166) RBI's (103)

Carlos Delgado: at-bats w/ runners in scoring position (164) RBI's (115)


or how about this stat:

Question: how many players have had over a .300 avg, 30 HR's, and 100 rbi's in each of their first 8 seasons?

Answer: (1) Albert Pujols

You could add 100 runs to that, but he only had 99 last year.

OK. Congratulations to the Phillies and their fans. On to more pressing matters for us Cardinal fans...


Cardinals GM John Mozeliak hosted a live Q&A session yesterday on the post dispatch website.

Mozeliak's chat

It is nice to see a GM take the time to do this. It was even nicer to see that the questions were not too filtered out. He got hit with some tough questions. I particularly enjoyed the one's that questioned the team's lack of activity at the trade deadline this year. I am not nieve enough to belive the team was 1-2 players away from a World Series winner, but they weren't a whole lot father off than that...

I heard on the radio that Peavy would waive his no-trade-clause to come to STL.

I'm no Cardinals fan, but Peavy on the Cardinals would be rather interesting. They need pitching and Peavy would most definitely give that to them.

The thing is, I don't see Rasmus going in a trade for Peavy. Without Rasmus involved in the trade, I don't think the Padres would deal Peavy to the Cards.

Lot's of rumblings and grumblings going on from the posh GM meeting in sunny CA. I will devote more time to this tomorrow. But for now, it appears that the team is hot for Holliday.


Holliday


More to come in the a.m.

More on the Matt Holliday rumors:


I just don't see this trade happening.

(1) $ - The Cardinals couldn't really be thinking of just "renting" Holliday for one season? They are going to want to lock him in before they sign off on the trade. Is Boras going to get the Holliday spirit (horrible pun) and let the Cards sign him below market value? Not a chance. So your looking at something like 5-6 years at $140-150 million. Are they going to give Holliday $25-28 million a year and look Albert in the eye when he's making a measly $16 million a year? They have some major big ones if that's the case.

(2) Is Holliday really that much of an upgrade over Ludwick (the centerpiece of the STL offer) that it would justify the huge salary bump? In short answer to this, I believe yes but looking at the main stat line of both players would lead you to think not. If you think outside the box a little you start to see where Holliday would pay for himself, especially hitting behind Albert. But still, arguements can be made either way.

I will be very surprised if this trade comes to pass. It really goes against managements new line of thinking (developing from within). It also goes against what the biggest perceived needs of the team are (bullpen, middle infield, starting pitching). Most importantly it goes against the thrifty nature of management. But Tony LaRussa has been calling for a big name, big impact bat for awhile. I guess we will see how much clout LaRussa has earned.

Someone's going to get him and someone is going to pay. It will be interesting to see if he winds up in St. Louis. I doubt it, though. I see them addressing their immediate needs, which you mention, first. A bat, like Holliday's, is like that sleak sports car you've always wanted, but you know it would be more sensible to get a durable family vehicle with a good rating and great gas mileage. He would look great in that lineup, but would be hard to keep.

Outfielders are the last thing the Cardinals need, especially overpriced, meagerly fielding ones like Matt Holliday.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Agreed. However, Holliday actually improved defensively this year. But point taken. When you hit .320 and 30-30 potential, your defense has to be horrid for anyone to really notice. I agree the money would be best served on pitching, but the most reasonable options I see right now on the free agent market would be guys like Jon Garland and Oliver Perez. Depending on the market though these guys might go for far more than their worth. I think the Cardinals are making a mistake by not trying to get Looper re-signed before FA opens. They very well might be, but I have not seen a hint anywhere that tells me they are. It is going to be very, very interesting to see how the team goes about filling their needs. I really enjoy the offseason.

This Holliday thing just isn't going away. According to Ken Rosenthal, the offer is Ludkwick, Schumaker, and Mitchell Boggs.

Rosenthal Article

It is also being reported that on the ESPNnews ticker it has the Cardinals listed as the favorite to get Holliday. I can't verify as I'm not watching So take that for what it's worth.

More to come apparently...

What a horrible deal. I hope it doesnt go through.

Yeah, I'm torn on the whole thing. Part of me says do it, the smarter half says save the $ and get some pitching. I will be content either way, but only if they spend the $ elsewhere if they don't do it.

I hope this doesnt go through. Ludwick has the potential to do big things. They just have to play him everyday. He could be a bigger time player than most outfielders if the Cards would just give him more Playing time. he could of easily hit 40 homeruns if he got the chance.

Down Grade if they pick up Holliday for Skippy, Ludwich, and Boggs.

We Need to go After Peavy.

Holliday talks are dead! Can't say I'm very surprised. It just didn't seem like something the organization would do. Now onto re-working that bullpen

Holliday

Since I last checked in...

Holliday traded to A's


Thought he would have been a nice fit, but for a one-year rental Lud,Skip, and Boggs is alot to pony up. So the focus now switches to FA's it would seem. I don't expect the Cardinals to be too agressive up front this year. I believe they will sit back and try to pick up some bargains like the Lohse deal last spring. I think we can expect to see at least one trade this offseason, maybe 2. I just don't see how they can address everything without dealing. There should be plenty of rumors and issues to discuss starting tomorrow as FA's are officially allowed to negotiate with other teams. Stay tuned...

Let the FA season begin. I'm going to do a little prediction on what I think the birds will do. It will no doubt be horribly wrong and skewed by my unapologetic love for the team but here we go anyway:


FA signings:

Orlandon Hudson 2B (4 years, 42 million)
Brian Fuentes LHRP/Closer (2 years, 24 million w/ 3rd year team option)
Arthur Rhodes LHRP (2 years, 15 million)
Felipe Lopez 2B/SS (2 years, 16 million w/3rd year team option)

Trades:


Ryan Ludwick LF, Allen Craig 3B, Mitchell Boggs SP to Atlanta for Yunel Escobar SS, PTBNL.


I suspect Fuentes will go for more, but a guy can dream... That won't be the actual trade obviously but I believe a deal with the main guts of Ludwick and Escobar could happen. Can't wait to watch what the team does (or doesn't do) this offseason!

Not a whole lot of buzz surrounding the Cards right now. It does appear that they have expressed interest in Will Ohman (LHRP) and Arthur Rhodes (LHRP). Would be nice to snag both of those guys and re-sign Russ Springer and call it a wrap on the bullpen. However, with the abundance of closers available this year, I believe there is an outside chance they could pick up a good reliever with some closing experience on the cheap.

This much I know: Take a look at the list of Type A free agents (Furcal, Fuentes, Hudson, etc... etc...) and throw those guys out the window. They will all be offered arbitration from their respective teams and once the players decline, the new team they sign with will have to send draft picks to their old team as compensation. The Cardinals will not be parting with that first round pick I would suspect.

With that being said, here is my new projection for the opening day lineup:

Skip Schumaker RF
Rick Ankiel CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Ryan Ludwick LF
Troy Glaus 3B
Edgar Renteria SS*
Yadier Molina C
Adam Wainwright P
Felipe Lopez 2B

* Renteria is a Type A free agent, however Detroit is unlikely to offer him arbitration because of the risk that he might accept. If Detroit wanted him back they'd have picked up the option.

**This projection is subject to change at any point

Well it looks as though the Cardinals have signed veterean reliever Trever Miller to a 2-year contract.

Trever Miller


No specifics on the $ yet as the deal is still pending physical. Millers overall #'s weren't very impressive this past year with the Rays:

I.P: 43.1 W/L: 2-0 4.15 era

but his splits look like this:

vs. Left BAA: .209 K: 30
vs. Right BAA: .286 K: 14


So you can see why the Cards liked him, he will be primarily used against tough left-handed hitters. I will reserve judgement on the signing until I see the contract information set in stone, but I think it was a necessary signing.

The arbitration deadline was 12:00 AM EST this morning. The Cardinals declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents including Russ Springer (Type A) and Braden Looper (Type B ).

Arbitration Decisions


The decision to not offer Looper or Springer arbitration is shocking to me. Springer was the Cardinals top reliever last year and Looper has been fairly solid as a mid-bottom of the rotation SP. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak explained that the roster space opened by their departure was more valuable to the team than the possibility they accept arbitration or the compensatory draft picks they would have received should Springer/Looper sign elsewhere. Unless the Cardinals have a battleplan and specific targets for those 2 roster spots, I have to disagree. I believe it is strictly a $ issue. But in fairness to the Cardinals, they are not the only team doing this. Far more notable players that were not offered arbitration included Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreau, Pat Burrell, Kerry Wood, and Andy Pettitte. Seems like economy is certainly starting to effect the decisions of the MLB GM's sooner rather than later...

The Cardinals are another team looking to build their system for future growth. The move doesn't surprise me, especially considering the economy.

Ever since the Haren trade they are clutching on to their prospects for dear life. They have become hoarders for the most part. They have done a nice job of re-stocking the farm system and have 4 or 5 legit prospects, but we must remember that this team is not the Athletics, Marlins, or Rays. This is a team that operates with a payroll north of $100 million but more importantly a ballclub that sells out consistently and enjoys a cross-country following. I am all for developing from within (Jocketty saw the farm system only as tradebait) but they are now visiting the other end of the spectrum and only trade when it is absolutely necessary (Rolen/Glaus, Anthony Reyes).

And economically we are not talking about a guy like Dunn or Burrell who, if they accept arb, could stand to make $15-17 million a year. In this economy it is understandable for a team to fear that scenario. With Looper and Springer, we are talking somewhere around $10 million combined for a solid SP and a frontline reliever. That is not a huge investment by any means. Once again, I will reserve judgement until they have made their moves but will remain puzzled until so.

Hey, I understand the Astros are considering trading Valverde and Wigginton because they might get a couple of extra million in arbitration each. McLane wants to keep the payroll down to $100 M, so the Cardinals are not alone in making odd off season moves that are budget (allegedly) related.

Oh for sure, there are crazy things going on all over. There are numerous blog posts floating about that are trying to understand what is actually going on here as there were alot of shocking arbitration declines. One theory, that I particularly liked being I am a conspiracy theorist, was that there is collusion going on between the owners to drive FA prices back down. It makes sense that they can use the economy as a valid excuse. Sort of a take back the power type deal However the Yankees and the Sabathia offer aren't helping that argument much

While others have jumped on the free agent band wagon from time to time, the Yankees are the ones most guilty for using it as their personal team development system to fill their immediate needs and try to build championships. While free agency is certainly better than the one team for life system that used to be in place (any player who went through that will tell you that), it has created a lop sided free agent market. The ones who ultimately pay for that are the fans, with higher ticket costs, parking, new stadiums, ect. If you want to blame anyone or any team for that, point your finger toward George Steinbrenner (and I've always liked the guy) and the Yankee's and the way they've used the free agency market, for good or bad, since the beginning of free agency.

Well, two weeks later and it is official... Trever Miller is a Cardinal. It is a one-year deal and financial information has not yet been released. Apparently the hold up in the signing was an issue with Miller's shoulder that was found during his physical. Must be an issue of minor concern, but original reports had this as a two-year deal so it is possible the injury concern cost him an extra year. Solid signing as long as they don't ask him to do much more than get a lefty out here and there. Winter meetings start Monday!! I should be posting here feverishly during...


Miller signs with Cardinals

Miller is a solid left handed relief pitcher and would be a good fit in St. Louis. He's pretty good against left handed hitters.

lots of khalil greene talk on the radio here

I like that guy! He reminds me soooooooooooooooo much of Spiccolli in "Fast Times at Ridgemont High!"

Sorry guys. I kind of missed the boat on this one. I was away for orientation all day and what do you know the birds make a move I'll have more tomorrow on this, I'm just far too tired.



Khalil Greene traded to the Cardinals

Greene had a tough time at the plate last season, but will hopefully rebound. He's a fine shortstop, and should be a good fit with the Cardinals. I do think he swung way too much for the fences, and apparently many people in baseball share that sentiment, as evidenced by that article you posted. That being said, he should still be an offensive improvement over what the Cardinals had last year at short.

Accidental duplicate post.

I do agree houkk. Greene is solid with the glove. I think he was at a -4 this year on the +/- though. It was a down year for him in every aspect. But, he is only one season removed from a 27 HR 90+ RBI effort. The Cardinals are banking that last year was a fluke or the result of poor mechanics at the plate which can be fixed. Also, I think playing for that woeful Padres team last year might have a little to do with it. This is a prime example of the low-risk/high-reward deals that this organization thrives on. Very solid trade IMO.

Ive never thought that much of Greene, but I am certainly happy over the end of the Cesar Izturis era.

Blissfully, a very short era.

Izturis was a +17 defender last season, there is tremendous value in that. He also hit .263 which, while not spectacular, is acceptable. I was not opposed to them bringing Izturis back as long as the $ saved would go to the bullpen or SP. I suspect Greene will hit around .260 or so also, but will probably chip in 10-20 HR's and 70-90 RBI's (Izturis had 1 HR 24 RBI's). As previously stated, Greene was a -4 defender this year. Assuming the 21 play difference lead to Izturis saving some runs that Greene "allowed" to score, you can subtract from Greene's overall value and add to Izturis'. The real key to this will be if Greene can improve his defense and get back to where he should be at the plate. If he improves significantly in both areas, there is no doubt he is a tremendous upgrade over Izturis.

Izturis wasn't horrible at the plate last year by any stretch of the imagination. He put up numbers you were probably expecting. He was there primarily for his defense, and any offense he supplied was a plus.

That being said, the main problem with Izturis was that he wasn't David Eckstein. The scrappy way Eckstein played ignited the top of the Cardinals batting order and set the table for the big run producers. It's very hard to be the guy who has to replace that.

The winter meetings started today in Las Vegas. I will try to keep the rumors to a minimum as most turn up false. This morning Ken Rosethal reported that the Cardinals are interested in A.J. Burnett.

Rosenthal article


This contradicts what John Mozeliak told the St.Louis Post Dispatch when he said the Cardinals would not be in on any of the "big" free agents.


Post Dispatch article


This is intriguing as Rosenthal has many sources in the game and tends to only report things that have significant merit (He was the first to break the Rolen/Glaus trade last winter). I have to believe they will not shell out the $ necessary to sign Burnett.

Another rumor floating around the winter meetings is the Red Sox are interested in trading the contract of slugging outfielder, Babe Ruth, to any team interested in financing the Broadway run of "No No Nannette." Rumor mill has it the Yankees are very interested.

Don't you love rumors and gossip at the winter meetings?

Fact is, someone with the Cardinals more than likely told Rosenthal about the interest in Burnett, or he wouldn't have reported it. Reporters and columnists have jobs to do to, and they use their connections to make headlines and sell newspapers. Anything can happen at the winter meetings, and often does...and doesn't. They do need another quality arm in that rotation. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Yes the rumor mill runs at full steam this time a year It makes for good reading while at work but it's always better to be a skeptical observer than an active participant in the madness.

Those rumors during the winter meetings often don't turn into deals (or signings) for a variety of reasons:

1.) The teams just couldn't reach an agreement to match value for value.
2.) The free agent is testing the gauge of interest of the interested teams.
3.) The interest suggested by the source is not as high as was reported.
4.) Reliability of the source of the rumor.

I miss the days of the winter meetings when they were held in Hawaii every year back in the '70's. Every night there would be some rumor about possible Astros dealings on the tube, and we were subjected to seeing Astros GM, Tal Smith, wearing a Hawaiian shirt every night on the news. Now that was hilarious!

Haven't updated this in awhile simply because there wasn't anything to talk about. The Cardinals have been silent since the Kahlil Greene trade. There were two Cardinal related signings today though:

Cubs sign Aaron Miles


and

Angels sign Brian Fuentes


Miles had been the super utility guy for the Cardinals the past few seasons and Fuentes was thought to be the player most coveted by the Cardinals this offseason. I honestly have no idea what direction the team is taking on this offseason, but I believe it's quite possible they don't due much more than settle a few arbitration cases. Pujols is going to be due a hefty extension at some point in the near future and I think they might wisely be stashing away some $. More to come I'm sure...