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> Anatomy of a Trade: Knowing When Fair Is Fair

msw_sportscards
post Jan 23 2016, 09:57 PM
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Seven days ago, our regularly scheduled broadcast was interrupted to make a special presentation of a special card that had made its way into my possession. That card was this:

Click through to read the article.

A big thank you to aceecards for a great trade.

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aceecards
post Jan 24 2016, 09:24 AM
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great write up marc.

i too still keep thinking this deal was tilted a little towards me, but, all those cards were in the vault and the price per pack point certainly weighed in my determination of the deal.

the musial was one of my favorite cards, on card and very shiny from a very high end product.

i wont mention what the gibson and brock products cost per pack either sad.gif

of course triple threads white whales come one per boxes.

Again as I always preach.. collecting aint about value its about getting what you want.

for my end, i got a nice low numbered on card auto of two of the greatest pitchers in dodger history. the card simply went straight from the envelope to the vault


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msw_sportscards
post Jan 24 2016, 05:32 PM
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Thanks, Steve.

That Musial is a beauty. When I saw it, the Gibson, and the Ozzie come out of the envelopes, all reservations dissipated. For a second, I felt a little guilty that maybe I did ask too much.

Sometimes, the numbers don't match up. As stated in the article, the Dizzy and the Koufax were in the same value range, but Dizzy autos are a lot harder to find. So is book value even a valuable reference material?

I'm happy. I hope you're satisfied.

Heck. It beats the offer that DA Cardworld shot me. It was insulting to the tune of lost my business.


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pogue_mahone
post Jan 24 2016, 07:35 PM
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Nice write up. Even with the nice additions to your Cardinals collection, I think you might have gotten the very short end of the stick in a couple ways.

1. When trading one very rare card for a handful of far less rare cards, I don't think you can't just total up the book value (even though you admirably admit that you knew you were coming up a bit short in value). The reason is pretty simple - the value (not money-wise, but overall desirability) of one super rare card, outweighs the sum of its parts. Meaning, 5 $40 cards just don't have the appeal of a rare $200 card.

2. The appeal of the Topps Heritage set. Its an incredibly desirable set and the dual autograph was no exception. Being a Heritage autograph collector myself, I know that these cards don't lose as much of their value over time as other autograph sets. Of course it depends on the player. But Koufax is pretty strong. The sheer quality of that set/card, in my opinion, can't be overestimated.

3. The Koufax/Kershaw were two impeccable crisp signatures in the same blue ink, on a classic card design, and hand numbered, and in a Topps protected case. The cards you traded for are most likely not in the peak of condition.

4. Maybe most importantly, the money value. Sure, its admirable that you do not care to weigh dollars and cents, but you do admit you did some "number crunching". And I believe you came up unfortunately way short on this deal. Other Heritage Koufax/Kershaw signatures have sold for $600+ (one for $800+), which even if its temporarily inflated due to the hype of the 2015 Heritage set, is a number that you could have matched had you sold it. Yeah, 10% Ebay fees is pretty bad, but still that's $550-$700 in your pocket.

The Sutter signature is faded (as many cards from the ill-conceived Sweet Spot Signatures set are). Crisp Sutter signatures, on fake game balls, can be found for $10-$15. Musial is nice and shiny and on-card, in fact I wouldn't mind that in my Musial collection either, heh. But, $75-$100 tops. Ozzie Smith is a nice rare one, but would struggle to top $100 or $120 in my honest opinion. Brock and Gibson are nice, but as you know sticker autos, and not spectacular game used pieces either, and they are numbered as high as Topps Sterling pieces go - 10. $40-$60 each, being generous.

Its nice that you saw a chance to get a few cards in your target collections, but really seems like you COULD have sold the Koufax and gotten much more Cardinals for your buck, even if they might not have been the exact cards Aceecards had at the time.

In any case, nice to read your thoughts on the trade. I hope to write some similar articles to yours chronicling my random card collections.



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msw_sportscards
post Jan 24 2016, 10:19 PM
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Certainly all good points. Some of them I had already weighed. What's rarer than a 1/1? Granted Ozzie 1/1 autos typically sell for $200, but how do you really put a value on a 1/1? Do you view comparables? Someone may be willing to sell it for $200, but the collector may have been willing to go as high as $500. In addition, once he gets it, he may not be willing to sell it except for a crazy number. So really, what's its value? It's variable.

I had thought about the sticker autos....many, many times because I've always wondered what's going to happen when those cards get old, the glue crumbles, and those stickers fall off. One of the nice things about these sticker autos is that they're actually embedded and framed by the top layer.

I have no doubt that the Koufax is going to hold its value, especially if Kershaw makes the Hall. It may even go up.

You could certainly crunch the final numbers and it's obviously a little lop-sided, book value-wise....actually not as much as you estimated.

On the other hand, you could also say I paid $33 ($20 for the packs and $13 for shipping) for 4 cards that mean a heck of a lot more to me than the Koufax + another card. The way I see it is that we both got a good deal.

Once upon a time when I flipped cards, I fretted over the bottom line quite a bit. Often insisting that I get the better deal in every instance. I also sold off a lot of cards in order to bolster that bottom line. Now I wish I had many of those cards back, especially knowing what I sold them for.

My philosophy has changed. In my opinion, too many people worry too much about the business and forget that it's a hobby. It's much more enjoyable as a hobby and I have no qualms whatsoever sharing a bit of my good fortune by giving a good deal to other collectors who are more concerned in preserving the hobby rather than the business. In my eyes, he gave up more than what I did. If the situations were reversed, I wouldn't have given up what he did because I value those cards more than the Koufax. Perceived value is just that, perceived value. How do you quantify it? By allowing Beckett the all-knowing to put a number on it?


PS- My disdain for ebay goes much deeper than fees. They're just the tip of the iceberg. A lot of it has to do with their purchase of PayPal and, basically, making it a requirement that non-business entities use it to receive payments on ebay.

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pogue_mahone
post Jan 25 2016, 03:01 AM
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Hmm. Good points. I guess you're right about the value of 1/1's, but yeah I was using comparable past sales as a guide. Plus Ozzie isn't really like Omar Vizquel or Griffey who have some crazy collectors willing to pay anything to get their next 1/1...but point taken, 1/1's are pretty unique.

I hear you on the perceived value. I don't go by Beckett value at all, but I like to know what kind of value my cards have, should I want or need to sell them in the future. In that sense, it makes sense to me to get a fair amount for what I give.

I'm glad you are happy with your Cardinals haul - they certainly are some really nice ones in that lot. More huge pulls to you in the future! (Maybe just go buy another Heritage box and pull another K/K dual smile.gif



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