Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ The Problem with Polling. . .

[Tromni]

Here is an article that's about as non-acrimonious a subject as you can get in a politics forum: Polling doesn't always work.

I personally found this one fascinating. Ignore the cap-and-trade angle, it's not really central to the point the article is making.

The Problem with Polling Cap-And-Trade

To very briefly summarize the findings:

When you have an obscure poll question being asked, quite a few respondents will decide their opinion on the spot without any real information.

Specifically, they reference a poll which asked "Some people say the 1975 Public Affairs Act should be repealed. Do you agree or disagree with this idea?"

No such act exists, but one third of the people who were polled thought they knew enough to answer the question with Agree or Disagree.

So while all of us do enjoy finding a poll which confirms our personal political preferences (while finding it very easy to ignore polls that don't confirm our own biases), it's worth remembering that many of the polls out there just won't ever work.

[Ilovetheheat]

Dont tell Andy(Sahetu), Jeremy(Luke2411) and Fred(Zedsls) that......

They claim polls are accurate.
-Jeremy

[Luke2411]

Dont tell Andy(Sahetu), Jeremy(Luke2411) and Fred(Zedsls) that......

They claim polls are accurate.
-Jeremy

LOL!! Once again so predictable.

I never once said ALL polls are accurate. However many are and those that are not could be if they attempted to meet certain scientific standards.

What we argued about was whether or not a sample of 1500 people could accurately represent the views of 300 million people. And that answer is "yes" and has been scientifically supported for over a century. You ignorantly argued against decades of statistical fact because you disagreed with the findings of a nationally recognized well conducted poll.

But probably what's more important here is that the article that Tromni posted deals with response bias caused by what the literature calls "nonattitudes." It really has nothing to do with the internals of how well the poll is conducted. The problem is asking people questions that they know very little about. On issues like cap and trade, stem cell research, global warming, etc. the American public is very very ill-informed. Thus it's not surprising that when asked a question on a survey about those issues their responses contain very little "real" information about their attitudes, because they don't hold real attitudes on those issues.

The poll question that you decided to dismiss was a straightforward question about ideology. Do you consider yourself liberal or conservative? Americans do know where they fit on that particular question and have been placing themselves on the ideological continuum on that exact survey question for decades, and the trend has been very very consistent. Those calling themselves conservative has practically always outnumbered those labeling themselves liberal and that hasn't dropped but in fact increased in the last several survey cycles.

[sahetu]

Dont tell Andy(Sahetu), Jeremy(Luke2411) and Fred(Zedsls) that......

They claim polls are accurate.
-Jeremy

Statistics 101, it's all about the math.

[Luke2411]

Statistics 101, it's all about the math.

You can lead a horse to water....

[stlbaseball15]

You can lead a horse to water....

...but you can't make him DRINK!!!!!

[Tromni]

...but you can't make him DRINK!!!!!

     

Unless you mandate it in the Healthcare reform bill?

[mjda]

Do you consider yourself liberal or conservative?

I found this to be extremely amusing. Not Jeremy's statement, but where it led me. Now, I would have said that I was likely more liberal than conservative.

However, I took a quiz at teennick.com which had the following options at the end:

Far-Left Liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Far-Right Conservative

Oddly enough, it told me I was a far-right conservative. Obviously, this isn't correct, but it does somewhat prove that perhaps everyone doesn't really know which category the belong to.

Just to make sure it wasn't entirely just because of a bogus quiz, I took another one at gotoquiz.com. This one was likely a little more accurate. I'm not sure what all the final options were at the end, but this is the answer I got at the end:

moderately conservative. You believe in personal responsibility, limited government, free markets, individual liberty, traditional American values.

Anyways, this might be off-topic, but after Jeremy's statement I thought it might be fun to test myself. Obviously, I failed.

[cdoyal]

I found this to be extremely amusing. Not Jeremy's statement, but where it led me. Now, I would have said that I was likely more liberal than conservative.

However, I took a quiz at teennick.com which had the following options at the end:

Far-Left Liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Far-Right Conservative

Oddly enough, it told me I was a far-right conservative. Obviously, this isn't correct, but it does somewhat prove that perhaps everyone doesn't really know which category the belong to.

Just to make sure it wasn't entirely just because of a bogus quiz, I took another one at gotoquiz.com. This one was likely a little more accurate. I'm not sure what all the final options were at the end, but this is the answer I got at the end:
Anyways, this might be off-topic, but after Jeremy's statement I thought it might be fun to test myself. Obviously, I failed.

Welcome to the big tent!

[Luke2411]

I found this to be extremely amusing. Not Jeremy's statement, but where it led me. Now, I would have said that I was likely more liberal than conservative.

However, I took a quiz at teennick.com which had the following options at the end:

Far-Left Liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
Far-Right Conservative

Oddly enough, it told me I was a far-right conservative. Obviously, this isn't correct, but it does somewhat prove that perhaps everyone doesn't really know which category the belong to.

Just to make sure it wasn't entirely just because of a bogus quiz, I took another one at gotoquiz.com. This one was likely a little more accurate. I'm not sure what all the final options were at the end, but this is the answer I got at the end:
Anyways, this might be off-topic, but after Jeremy's statement I thought it might be fun to test myself. Obviously, I failed.

There is an argument to be made as to whether some individuals understand the liberal/conservative dichotomy. That's been something political scientists have discussed for years. However, we do know that regardless people still place themselves consistently and regularly on that continuum and most people place themselves on the conservative side and that number has increased recently.

But, whether or not people understand liberalism vs. conservatism is not the argument Ilovetheheat was making, and in fact, it's not an argument that he ever even mentioned to my knowledge. His argument was that a sample of 1500 people could not represent 300 million people. That argument is categorically wrong.

And in fact, I gave him the opportunity to make that argument. I told him that he could provide proof of the American public becoming less conservative if he could show me that they have moved from right to left across a number of different political issues over an extended period of time. One could argue that where people stand on issues is a better measure of their ideology than their simple self-reported placement on the ideological continuum. You Michael, might be a very good example of that. But again, Ilovetheheat didn't make this argument.


Now, if there are many people out there like you Michael, who would label themselves liberal but when they actually analyze their attitudes find out that they are fairly conservative, then perhaps the number of actual conservatives in the US is even higher than what a standard survey question might get at. Of course it could work the other way as well. But again, not the argument Ilovetheheat made.

[cdoyal]

Now, if there are many people out there like you Michael, who would label themselves liberal but when they actually analyze their attitudes find out that they are fairly conservative, then perhaps the number of actual conservatives in the US is even higher than what a standard survey question might get at.

Back in the day, when my wife and I were in school, being a liberal meant you were kind and compassionate towards everyone. Today - not so much.
That's why they try to re-label themselves as "progressive".
Michael should be commended for his honesty with all of us, regardless of political philosophy.

[stlbaseball15]

Back in the day, when my wife and I were in school, being a liberal meant you were kind and compassionate towards everyone. Today - not so much.
That's why they try to re-label themselves as "progressive".
Michael should be commended for his honesty with all of us, regardless of political philosophy.

Self-identified Progressives have been around since the late 19th century.

[sahetu]

I don't fit in either party, or any party really...

I want shoot my gun, eat small cute woodland creatures, let people do/marry whoever they like, even if it's a sheep, but they can't snuff an unborn life unless it's some extreme circumstance, I want health care because it's a human rights issue (imo), but I don't wanna pay for companies to not go bankrupt, I'd love to see education be free across the board until grad school, I want us to be isolationist again (thus pulling out of international endeavors that are going nowhere), lower the drinking age to 18 OR raise the smoking age to 21, decriminalization of pot even though i don't touch the stuff (anymore), mandatory public service in exchange for money/incentives for two to three years after high school (military, public works, preservation, conservation, relief), a return to the gold standard, nuclear power can be a good thing, wanna immigrate? join public service for three years first - otherwise our borders are closed, I don't care who worships what as long as they respect each others beliefs, I like run on sentences, I like watching us rocket into space, and having a public wi-fi grid (free net/cell) wouldn't be a bad thing either.

Also, I would like tar and feathering to be legal against politicians by unruly mobs of their constituents.

One thing I don't want to change is the ability for us all to talk about what we want and believe in, even if we don't agree. That and pizza on Fridays.

And pie.

[ffman]

Pie? Where?

I don't fit in either party, or any party really...

I want shoot my gun, eat small cute woodland creatures, let people do/marry whoever they like, even if it's a sheep, but they can't snuff an unborn life unless it's some extreme circumstance, I want health care because it's a human rights issue (imo), but I don't wanna pay for companies to not go bankrupt, I'd love to see education be free across the board until grad school, I want us to be isolationist again (thus pulling out of international endeavors that are going nowhere), lower the drinking age to 18 OR raise the smoking age to 21, decriminalization of pot even though i don't touch the stuff (anymore), mandatory public service in exchange for money/incentives for two to three years after high school (military, public works, preservation, conservation, relief), a return to the gold standard, nuclear power can be a good thing, wanna immigrate? join public service for three years first - otherwise our borders are closed, I don't care who worships what as long as they respect each others beliefs, I like run on sentences, I like watching us rocket into space, and having a public wi-fi grid (free net/cell) wouldn't be a bad thing either.

Also, I would like tar and feathering to be legal against politicians by unruly mobs of their constituents.

One thing I don't want to change is the ability for us all to talk about what we want and believe in, even if we don't agree. That and pizza on Fridays.

And pie.

[Tromni]

Pie?  Where?

Mmmm. . . pie . . .